As we finish the week, the conflict involving Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz, which normally sees 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through each day, remains closed. Oil prices remain elevated, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading above $96 per barrel and Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. As neither side in the conflict appears willing to stand down, market stress continues to build, and stocks posted another week of declines.
All major U.S. stock indices ended the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 943 points, falling to 46,558. The NASDAQ, supported by smaller losses in technology stocks, fell 1.07% to 24,381. The S&P 500 declined 1.59% to 6,632. Because the shock came from energy prices, energy stocks performed well, with the sector gaining 1.99%. Utilities, a traditionally safe-haven sector, gained 0.48%. All other sectors ended the week lower.
The bond market did not fare any better. Inflation fears stemming from oil prices and a large amount of spending related to the conflict pushed all parts of the yield curve higher. Both the U.S. 5-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points, to 3.87% and 4.28%, respectively. Gold also declined to nearly the 5,000 level.
Economic data was generally neutral, showing yet another month in which inflation did not surprise the market and no major cracks appeared in the labor market. A heavy revision to fourth-quarter GDP did occur, but it was attributed largely to the government shutdown, which was temporary.
An interest rate decision will take place next Wednesday. While it is widely expected that no change will be made to the current interest rate, we may hear more about how Federal Reserve officials are interpreting the impact of the current conflict’s shocks.
We hope you have a great weekend.