Noise, Narrow Leadership, and the Search for Real Returns

January ended with U.S. stocks modestly higher, even asrising geopolitical tensions—from NATO uncertainty and U.S. actions inVenezuela and potentially Greenland to fears of foreign capital retreating fromU.S. assets—helped push gold and silver to record highs.

The Dow gained about 1.7% for the month, while the S&P 500 rose roughly 1.4% and the Nasdaq added about 0.9%. That’s a constructive start to the year, but it also highlights the dynamic that’s been frustrating for many investors: there has been plenty of headline volatility, yet no substantive pullback that is providing opportunities to anyone who’s been waiting on the sidelines.

That pattern has been especially noticeable because the market has been relatively range-bound for a while. Over roughly the past three months, the S&P 500’s net change has been relatively flat—more churn than trend.

Technology stocks also told a “mixed” story rather than a clean leadership narrative. Several mega-cap names struggled while others advanced, leaving tech performance uneven and, in aggregate, far less dominant than investors have grown accustomed to. This dispersion has been healthy in one important way: markets have been forcing selectivity. Investors have been rewarding tangible execution and credible earnings outcomes, while pushing back on “trust us, the payoff is coming” spending stories—especially around AI.

Earnings season has been a driver of leadership, reinforcing how narrow the line is between AI optimism and AI skepticism. Microsoft delivered strong headline results, but investors focused on the scale of AI and data-center spending and the near-term monetization question, particularly around its Azure cloud computing unit growth. The message from the market was clear: AI investment alone is no longer enough—returns matter.

Meta landed on the other side of that trade. After trailing other heavy AI investors over the past year amid perceptions that it had fallen behind in its AI commitment, the company beat expectations and guided to a significant increase in 2026 capital spending, projecting roughly $115–$135billion in capex to expand AI infrastructure.

Apple’s AI strategy also came into sharper focus late in the month, with plans to use Google’s Gemini models to power a more capable Siri—rather than build its own AI models. The move underscored how quickly the AI landscape is pushing even the most disciplined platforms to partner, buy, or build aggressively. Google shares also benefited from the announcement.

On the economic side, the labor data continues to look more slow-but-stable than recessionary. Jobless claims remain historically low, supporting the idea that companies aren’t broadly firing, even if they also aren’t aggressively hiring. Real wage growth has helped consumers keep spending despite affordability pressures, and delinquency rates appear to be rolling over after rising from pandemic lows. Growth expectations have remained surprisingly firm, with fourth-quarter GDP estimated at roughly 4.2%, driven largely by consumer spending—but also cap-ex spending. Inflation has shown renewed signs of cooling, with recent data consistent with price growth that is less alarming to the Federal Reserve.

Nevertheless, the Fed held the fed funds rate steady at its January meeting, maintaining a wait-and-see posture. Markets then pivoted sharply late in the month when President Trump surprisingly announced that former Fed governor Kevin Warsh is a leading candidate to replace Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends. Warsh is widely viewed as more hawkish.

Currency and commodity markets delivered the loudest reaction to this shift by Trump. The dollar softened earlier in the month before snapping higher around policy headlines. That period of dollar weakness and geopolitical concerns that drove it helped fuel an extraordinary run in precious metals, followed by a dramatic reversal on January 30. Gold and silver suffered their worst single-day declines since 1980, with silver down roughly 31% and gold futures down about 11% in one session. Even the equity market felt the cross-current, as investors digested the shifting rate narrative and the violent unwind in “hard-asset” positioning.

From our perspective, when the markets in a highly speculative asset class get that extended and that crowded, air pockets can appear quickly—particularly when a catalyst forces leveraged buyers to stepaway and sellers to rush for the same door.

Adams Wealth Advisors’ house view: We remain focused on fundamentals rather than the bluster out of Washington or the day-to-day narrative around foreign investors abandoning U.S. assets. Headlines can move prices, sometimes violently, but the durable drivers of long-term returns remain economic growth, inflation and rates, and—most importantly—corporate earnings and prospects for competitive leadership for years to come.

That framework is exactly why we have not taken positions in gold or silver. January provided a clear example of how quickly those markets can become highly speculative and sentiment-sensitive, and we prefer to avoid exposures where meme-stock-style liquidity investment flow is the primary driver.

In equities, we remain constructive overall on U.S. stocks and continue to see meaningful opportunities globally. Our select international positions have performed well year-to-date, reinforcing our view that diversification is not simply a risk-management tool, but also a source of return as market leadership broadens beyond the most crowded areas of the U.S.market.

Recent months of choppy, sideways trading have helped improve valuations in certain areas, as earnings expectations continue to improve. We continue to lean into select industries—particularly the picks and shovels of the AI and data-center buildout—across both our globally diversified portfolios and individual stock allocations. As always, our investment process balances long-term conviction with disciplined risk management, enabling us to maintain a long-term perspective while remaining alert to shorter-term opportunities when they arise.